This matrix is based on the MARSEC levels established to provide a unified response to terrorist threats. Climate change is now a threat to our society, and should be treated similarly.  Setting the Climate Threat Level has a subjective component, depending on your bias. Understandable, since we have not been down this road before. This is simply a benchmark to assess the level of unified response.  It relies on scientific fact. Needless to say, It's highly unlikely we will ever return to Level 1 unless climate change randomly stabilizes or the threat is mitigated. 

 

Criteria: 

1. Threat Verification - Today, we know what the threat is, and the scientific community has described the impact as "dire" and "catastrophic."   

 

2. Urgency Verification - The scientific community has recently (Oct. 2018) alluded to a time frame for action of 10 - 12 years for taking and achieving action to meet set goals.  However, this is a moving target as new data is gathered.  The scientific community has not published a definitive consensus on how rapidly climate change will occur.  This is a key element in moving from Level 2 to Level 3. Advances in global data techniques are changing rapidly and the setting of the Threat Level will likely hinge on climate models based on recent data gathered by satellites and the ARGO Program. Frequency of weather related disasters will also affect our sense of urgency. 

 

3. Mitigation Options - Simply put, can we mount an effort in a timely manner and on a scale to slow the global processes in place the extent that that is measurable.